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Selling Video A strategic analysis

Summary.... AMR's definitive look at video sell-through: the history and development of a $14 billion market producing $11.5 billion in revenue for the studios. Includes newly updated 04' video sales and projections to 2013.

AMR's definitive look at video sell-through: the history and development of a $14 billion market producing $11.5 billion in revenue for the studios. Includes newly updated 04' video sales and projections to 2013

In the report:


This comprehensive report is available for purchase as either a downloadable PDF, or a printed book, and, as with all AMR market models, utilizes a level of detail, sophisticated analysis, and insight unsurpassed in the industry. Issues analyzed include the following:
  • How has the pay-per-film sell-through business model impacted what has always been a pay-per-viewing movie business?
  • Are DVD sales growing enough to make up for plummeting sales of VHS? When will we see the end of VHS sales?
  • Has DVD growth already seen its peak?
  • How does Per-HH buying of DVDs compare to other media like CDs, VHS, books and box office spending?
  • How much will studios be making from DVD sales in 2008? 2013?
  • Studio video revenue on the hits has doubled since '97, but how are lesser-box-office lights performing in the DVD era?
  • Which films deliver the biggest video bang for the buck? Analysis of top titles back to 1990 by genre and MPAA rating.
  • How much of the typical $24.95 list price goes to retailers? To studios? To consumers in the form of discounts off list?
  • Should studios keep prices as high as possible or pursue unit-sales growth through discounts?
  • How big a market is the sale of previously viewed titles, and how is it impacting overall sales?
  • Can video retailers continue to compete with mass merchants?

Get an in-depth analysis of how DVD is driving the studios' most vital market. AMR uses a combination of "top down", demand-side analysis based on household penetration and per-household consumption integrated with a "bottom up" supply-side analysis based on our own tracking of studio shipments and revenue to generate an accurate, reliable projection model of the video retail business.

"Selling Video: A Strategic Analysis" presents all the data and the analysis behind it: Detailed video retail history and 10-year comprehensive projection model with projections of DVD households by device type, consumer retail spending and studio revenue 1981-2013; DVD shipments--pipeline inventory, consumer purchasing, returns; The first detailed analysis of the impact of previously viewed title sales on rental store profitability; A detailed analysis of the retail market with market share by store type and top sellers in each retail sector; The complete history of online sales of home video; Analysis of video title performance by box office range and the impact of the DVD transition; Top titles of all time.

Table of contents


Executive Summary
I. From the Per-Viewing Model to the Per-Film Model
II. Four Factors Driving Sell-Through's Dominance
III. How DVD Is Transforming Home Entertainment
IV. Retail Goes Hollywood
V. Key Trends: Where the Business Is Going From Here
VI. The Issues Going Forward
Appendix I. The Sell-Through Model
Appendix II. Top Title Performance

Tables and Charts


Aggregate Consumer Spending on Home Video
Consumer Spending Per Transaction
Tie Ratios: The Measure of Success
2003 Participation Margins
Studio Feature Film Entertainment Revenue by Pipeline
1995 v. 2004: Number of Transactions
1995 v. 2004: Consumer Spending
1995 v. 2004: Studio Revenue
Studio Per-Film v. Per-View Revenue
Annual Unit Consumption Per VHS/DVD Household
Video Units Sold v. Average Retail Price 1981-1997
Annual Number of Sell-Through-Priced New Release Features
Studio Revenue: Sell-Through v. Rental 1981-1990
Top Twenty-Five Direct-to-Video Titles of All Time by Initial Release Revenue
Video Grosses By Box-Office Range 2002 v. 1997
DVD Revenue: The Money is at the Top
2003 New Release Value Chain Splits
Studio Share of the Retail Market: 1997, 2002, 2003
New Release DVDs by Box Office Range 2000-2003
VHS Sell-Through Priced Title Performance by Box Office Range 2001-2003
Average Performance of the Top Ten Video Titles by Year
Studio Net Revenue from Feature and Non-Feature Video Product
VHS v. DVD Inventory & Shipments 1991-2003
U.S. Video Retail Market By Store Category 2003
Mass Merchants - Video Sales 2003
Video Specialists - Video Sales 2003
PVTs: A Growing Part of the Video Business
Wholesale Clubs - Video Sales 2003
Supermarkets - Video Sales 2003
Consumer Electronics Stores - Video Sales 2003
Online Video Sales 2003
Online Home Video Sales Market 1997-2003
Music/Video Stores - Video Sales 2003
Bookstores - Video Sales 2003
Top Sellers of Home Video Products
The DVD Rollout v. TV's Early Years
DVD-Enabled Households
Unduplicated DVD-Enabled Households
The Decline of VHS HH
Annual Rentals Per Household
Annual Buys Per VHS-DVD Household: 1981-2013
Entertainment Media Purchases Per Household
Average Consumer Price: VHS v. DVD
Consumer Retail Spending 1981-2013: VHS v. DVD
Per-Video-Household Retail Spending: 1981-2013
DVD Gross Shipments: Where the Discs Go
Sell-Through Inventories: 1981-2013
Net Supplier Revenue From Video Sell-Through
Studio Net Video Revenue 1981-2013
New Release Shipments: Two Scenarios Compared
Video Grosses By Box-Office Range 2003 v. 2002
VHS Sell-Through History 1981-1988
VHS Sell-Through History 1989-1996
DVD & VHS Sell-Through History 1997-2004 (projected)
DVD & VHS Sell-Through Projections 2005-2013
Top Ten DVD-Era Titles by DVD Revenue Per Average DVD HH
Top Ten Titles of All Time by Total 1st Cycle Revenue
Top Ten Titles Priced for Sales on VHS by VHS Revenue
Top Ten Titles by Initial Release Video Revenue 1990-1992
Top Ten Titles by Initial Release Video Revenue 1993-1995
Top Ten Titles by Initial Release Video Revenue 1996-1998
Top Ten Titles by Initial Release Video Revenue 1998-2001
Top Ten Titles by Initial Release Video Revenue 2002-2003
Top Non-G-Rated Titles for Each Year 1990-2003
Top Titles for Each Year by Genre 1990-2003

Data Points from AMR's Video Sell-Through Model: 1981-2013:
Home Video Hardware Penetration:
Year-End TV Households (HH)
Year-End VCR-Using HH
Set-Top DVD Players Shipped
Year-End Set-Top DVD HH
Console Penetration of TV HH
VHS Sell-Through (ST) Consumer Spending:
Annual Buys/Average HH
Total VHS Units Sold to Consumers
Average Price
VHS ST Consumer Spending
Net VHS Units Shipped to ST
Net Supplier VHS ST Revenue
Gross VHS Units Shipped to ST
Gross Supplier VHS ST Revenue
DVD Sell - Through Consumer Spending:
Annual Disc Buys/Average Set-Top HH
SW Units Sold to Set-Top HH
Weighted Average Price
DVD Set-Top HH ST Spending
Year-End Multi-Purpose (Game) HH
Year-End Multi-Purpose (MP) HH Without Set-Top DVD
SW Units Per MP-Only HH
SW Units Sold To MP - Only HH
Year-End PC DVD-ROM HH
Year-End HH W/OUT DVD-Video or MP-DVD
SW Units Per PC-DVD-Only HH
SW Units Sold To PC-DVD-Only HH
DVD Sell-Through Totals:
Year-End Total DVD HH - all types (unduplicated)
Penetration of TV HH
Total DVD Units Sold to Consumers
DVD ST Consumer Spending
Net DVD Units Shipped to ST
Net Supplier Revenue from DVD ST
Gross DVD Units Shipped to ST
Gross Supplier DVD ST Revenue
VHS & DVD Combined Totals:
Total Video Units Sold to Consumers
Total Sell-Through Consumer Spending
Gross Supplier St Revenue
Net Supplier Sell-Through Revenue

Individual purchase
$1990 (electronic)
$995 (print)

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Sales contact
831-658-0303
831-658-0309
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